The hottest market is slightly weak. Can construct

2022-08-09
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The market is slightly weak. Can construction steel continue its rise

since July, the domestic steel price has gone out of a wave of off-season market under the sharp rise of the futures market. However, with the recent high temperature and rainy season, weak demand and high pressure of futures prices, the market weakness has appeared slightly. Fortunately, the current social inventory pressure is not large. As the market gradually enters the off-season of steel consumption, can the price of construction materials continue to rise? Below, the author makes a brief analysis through the following points

in terms of price, as of July 17, the absolute price index of plain steel rebar was 3917.0 yuan/ton, up 90.2 yuan/ton or 2.36% from last week; The month on month increase was 147.6 yuan/ton, or 3.92%. The absolute price index of Pugang hot coil was 3807.6 yuan/ton, up 142.4 yuan/ton month on month, or 3.88%; The month on month increase was 378.3 yuan/ton, or 11.03%. In terms of growth, the increase of hot coil index last month was 230.7 yuan/ton higher than that of thread

from the perspective of price difference, the current difference between the two is 109.4 yuan/ton. Since this year, the price level of hot coil has been lower than that of deformed steel bar for a long time. However, with the de stocking of hot coil Market and the overall recovery of demand since the second quarter, the market price of plate has rebounded, and the price difference with deformed steel bar is also shrinking. In contrast, at present, steel mills are more optimistic, and with the rising cost, the short-term price is difficult to fall sharply

in terms of steel plant production, the weekly operating rate of deformed steel bars of 139 building materials steel plants nationwide I surveyed on the 14th of this month was 78.0%, unchanged on a weekly basis and increased by 0.6% on a monthly basis; The actual weekly output was 3.3434 million tons, an increase of 17400 tons on a weekly basis, the weekly capacity utilization rate was 73.3%, an increase of 0.4% on a weekly basis, and an increase of 1.6% on a monthly basis (71.7%); A total of 64 hot-rolled coil production enterprises were monitored, and the actual number of production lines was 58. The overall operating rate was 90.63%, a decrease of 3.13% over the previous week. On a month on month basis, the actual output of the steel plant was 3.241 million tons, an increase of about 14900 tons over the previous week. The annual capacity utilization rate of the steel plant was 82.80%, an increase of 0.38% over last week. Capacity utilization increased by 2.92% year-on-year (79.88%)

with the rise of plate prices, the production of steel mills has also changed, and the capacity utilization rate of hot coil has rebounded. Considering the high profit of screw thread and high production enthusiasm, the capacity utilization rate has increased slightly. However, as the current profit space of building materials is still better than that of plates, for the short and medium term, the production focus of steel mills is still building materials. However, in the first half of the year, the full withdrawal plan of the medium frequency furnace was put forward, and the contraction of the supply end of construction materials in the early stage was replaced by the full-scale production of blast furnace manufacturers. Considering that the current steel plant is profitable, the blast furnace plant will continue to increase production, and the electric arc furnace plant will gradually release production capacity in the third quarter

in terms of demand, the trading volume data of 237 traders I surveyed showed that the total trading volume of construction steel nationwide on the 17th was 223358 tons, an increase of 67331 tons over the previous trading day. As of July 17, the average transaction volume of national construction steel in July was 179716.27 tons, an increase of 1178.73 tons per month or 0.66% month on month compared with 178537.54 tons in June. Even in the off-season of steel demand, the total transaction data of national construction materials did not fall sharply, but increased in the off-season, indicating that the market demand side is not too bad

however, with the influence of the high temperature in East China and the stable performance of the rainy weather in the south, the demand weakens and it is difficult to support the continued rise in prices. Especially in the recent market, only under the premise of the sharp rise in futures, the transaction volume will be increased, and the normal transaction level is 1 Multi rotation (applicable to gate valves, globe valves and other valves that need to rotate the handle many times for opening and closing operations, the value is about 160000 tons;

in terms of social inventory, the rebar inventory in major cities across the country was 3.8795 million tons on July 14, a decrease of 22300 tons, or 0.57%, compared with last week; the total national wire stock was 1.215 million tons, a decrease of 12900 tons, or 1.1%, compared with last week; in terms of steel plant inventory, the total inventory of building materials in steel plants across the country was 2.8377 million tons, or 1.1%, compared with last week The month on month decrease was 111300 tons, a decrease of 3.77%, and a year-on-year decrease of 12.16%. Among them, the total inventory of rebar was 2.252 million tons, with a decrease of 93100 tons on a weekly basis, a decrease of 3.97%, and a year-on-year decrease of 11.43%; The total amount of wire rod was 585700 tons, with a decrease of 18200 tons on a weekly basis, a decrease of 3.02%, and a year-on-year decrease of 14.89%

from the inventory data, at present, the total inventory of social warehouses and factory warehouses is declining, and the steel consumption level in the off-season is better than expected, so the inventory continues to digest, falling for three consecutive weeks, and the current total inventory is at a historical low, which is relatively supportive of the price rise in the later period

on the whole, although the market entered the high temperature and rainy season in July, the downstream demand was also weakening. However, since late June, the futures price has risen sharply, and the steel mills continue to implement the development strategy of efficient and green plastic granulator, which has contributed to the fire, and the spot price has continued to rise; In addition, in the third quarter, there will still be speculation about the capacity reduction of environmental protection steel, the transaction volume has not been significantly reduced, and the social inventory is at a historical low. In the short term, the steel price may be difficult to fall sharply, so the author expects the domestic building materials price to fluctuate at a high level in late July

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